How will the export of grain crops in Ukraine change in 2019/2020

nThe weather conditions of the past agrarian season had a negative impact on the production of grain, but despite this, export volumes did not decrease. As analysts of USDA predict, the country will not lose its position in the global market of a major supplier in the Black Sea region for the next 2 years. Exports of grain crops will not fall, although there are problems in terms of logistics and changes in weather conditions.

What factors affect the export of grain crops

According to the relevant ministry, the current state of crop production is:
● wheat – 25.1 million tons;
● barley — 7.5 million tons;
● rye – 392 thousand tons.
Not all the harvest was high quality. Part of the wheat and barley were spoiled by intense rains in June, July, and did not meet the standards. Despite this, poor quality grain did not affect the overall statistics.
According to the data provided by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, farmers harvested 1,146 thousand hectares of corn, of which 6.8 million tons of grain were produced. The current position allows you to make forecasts for the production of this crop for the next agricultural season. About 29.5 million tons of grain is expected. It is necessary to take into account other factors that affect the crop. Logistics problems impede timely harvesting; part of the corn may remain in the fields. This situation was already observed in 2016, when, due to the lack of storage facilities, not all corn was harvested.
Some sources claim that under favorable weather conditions, maize can retain its properties, wintering in the fields. In addition, an uncleaned grain has a minimum of moisture than what it collected in the fall, which means fewer costs the farmer will spend on drying it. But there is a downside: with a high level of humidity, the risk of mycotoxins in the grain increases.
Most grain exports go through the Black Sea. Products are transported to the port via road and rail.

According to statistics, last year the share of rail transportation accounted for 35.7 million tons of grain, cars – 13.1 million tons. River vessels transported 0.3 million tons.
The railway is the main carrier of the harvest but is experiencing serious problems. Rolling stock needs capital reconstruction, there is a shortage of locomotives and grain carriers. Despite the fact that a large number of domestic bunkers have access to the railway transport system, only 10% can load at least 50 cars a day. 90% fill no more than 5 cars daily.
In this and next years, changes in the export market of grain crops are expected in the country. Barley shipments declined in Saudi Arabia but increased to China and EU countries. The supply of wheat flour to China and Hong Kong also increased.

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Report of analysts “Algo Capital”
How will the export of grain crops in Ukraine change in 2019/2020