The world grain market 2019: analysis and forecasts

Analysis of the production of grain crops in China for the period 2007-2017 allowed us to predict the state of the industry, stocks, and consumption for the current and future periods. According to experts, the world grain market in 2019 will increase, and in some segments will reach record levels.

What factors affect the world grain market 2019

Crop production in 2018 amounted to 2,655 million tons, and by the end of 2019, an increase to 2,683 million tons is expected. Record indicators will be observed in the consumption of wheat – 748 million tons. Rice consumption volumes will reach 511 million tons, and maize – 1,425 million tons.
Large stocks of grain have affected the entire world market. It is expected that next year they will increase by 11% compared with the previous season and will amount to 849 million tons. It is necessary to take into account that these stocks have accumulated for several years, and during 2019 they will decrease by 2.9% from the initial indicators. This will lead to a decrease in the ratio of inventory to consumption, a drop of 30.7%.
The record is expected in world rice volumes – 181 million tons. This contributes to an increase in yield in India and stocks of China.
Experts predict turnover of 412 million tons. This figure is 2.2% less than was observed last season.
In the new season, an increase of 4% in wheat production is expected – 757 million tons. The increase in volumes is due to favorable weather conditions in Europe, Ukraine, and Russia – a good crop is predicted here.
The statistics authorities of China have submitted current data on the state of the grain market. The real figures for the production of wheat, rice, corn, the area used for cultivating the land and the level of yield allow us to predict the development of the industry on a global scale.

New research has shown that in 11 years grain production turned out to be 312 million tons more than previously announced. Such a difference in the real picture was given by corn, 80% of the volumes of which were corrected.
For a long time, China did not provide official stock and consumption figures. After updating the data, it became necessary to revise the current state of the entire world grain market and the forecast for 2019. The balance of supply and demand for crops, their use as a source of food in the livestock sector has changed significantly.
Thanks to the cooperation of AMIS and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, adjustments were made to the forecasts. If earlier experts talked about 182 million tons, which go to feed, now the figure has changed to 194 million tons.

 

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The world grain market 2019: analysis and forecasts